These aren’t the same Colts, not even close.
Frank Reich is gone and Matt Ryan is, too. Indianapolis isn’t simply preparing for another season, it’s ushering in a new era. Quarterback Anthony Richardson — the No. 4 pick in the draft — is now the face of the franchise, and former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen has taken the reins as a first-time head coach.
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The stakes are high, as this season could determine the Colts’ fate for years to come, and Richardson, Steichen, general manager Chris Ballard and owner Jim Irsay are all feeling the pressure to get this right.
The biggest question four months out from the season: When will Richardson start? Indianapolis has been tight-lipped on his timeline so far, but now that the 2023 NFL schedule has been released, the speculation will only intensify.
Colts 2023 schedule
Week 1 keys to victory
It’s a tall task to open the season against the defending AFC South champs at home, but if the Colts want to knock off the Jaguars they must pressure Trevor Lawrence. The 2021 No. 1 pick completed a combined 45 of 52 passes for three touchdowns against zero interceptions, plus two rushing scores in two games last year. Indianapolis’ defense, anchored by interior defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, can’t let Lawrence feel that comfortable again.
Offensively, regardless of whether Richardson or Gardner Minshew is starting at quarterback, Indianapolis must be able to run the ball behind hopefully a much stouter offensive line than it had in 2022. If Jonathan Taylor can get going, and Lawrence remains on the sideline, the Colts would have a chance to win their first season opener since 2013.
Must-watch game: Colts at Panthers, Week 9
There will be two overarching storylines heading into this contest: No. 1 pick Bryce Young versus No. 4 pick Richardson; and the Colts facing their former head coach Frank Reich, who’s now the Panthers’ head coach.
Indianapolis could’ve traded up to draft Young but opted to stay put, and Carolina made the move for Young instead. If the former Alabama signal caller leads the Panthers to a victory alongside Reich, the Colts will have a lot of egg on their face. On the other hand, if Richardson — assuming he starts over Minshew — guides Indianapolis to a win, then Irsay and company will look like geniuses. Expect a lot of trash talk between these fan bases before and after the game.
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Toughest stretch: Weeks 1-3
Indianapolis is scheduled to face four teams that made the playoffs last season — the Jaguars, Ravens, Buccaneers and Bengals — and two of those matchups are against division foes in the first three weeks. After the Colts host the Jaguars in their season opener, they’ll play at Houston and Baltimore in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively. The reason this stretch might be the toughest of the season is because of newcomers Steichen and Richardson. This is Steichen’s first chance to set the tone as the coach, and if Richardson is under center, it’ll be his introduction to the NFL. The on-field product may not be pretty, even against lowly Houston, but it could pay off in the long run if both men show flashes of their potential and get the rest of the team to buy in.
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Game that has gotten tougher: Browns at Colts, Week 7
After being suspended 11 games last year because of allegations of sexual misconduct, Deshaun Watson is set to play a full season of football for the first time since 2020. The three-time Pro Bowler struggled mightily in 2022, throwing seven touchdowns against five interceptions in six starts. But having no restrictions on his ability to practice and play in 2023 could help jumpstart Cleveland’s offense. Indianapolis’ secondary is one of its most inexperienced units, so unless Watson’s regression is irreversible, the 28-year-old should make the Browns a more difficult matchup for the Colts.
One game Indianapolis can’t afford to lose: Texans at Colts, Week 18
The Colts were winless against the Texans last year, tying on the road in the season opener and losing on a fourth-and-28 touchdown pass and subsequent two-point conversion in the season finale. Houston drafted quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, and both should make immediate impacts, but the Texans still have one of the worst rosters in the league. Indianapolis has more talent on paper, and after being embarrassed at the end of 2022, it can’t drop another regular-season finale against a division rival that’s likely headed for another top-five pick.
Best offense the Colts will face: Colts at Bengals, Week 14
The Bengals have turned into a perennial title contender with Joe Burrow, who is arguably the second-best quarterback in the NFL behind reigning league and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. The 2020 No. 1 pick led a Cincinnati offense that ranked eighth in the league last year at 26.1 points per game. Since Indianapolis is very inexperienced at cornerback, Burrow and his standout receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, could have huge performances.
Best defense the Colts will face: Colts at Patriots, Week 10
It helps that this game will be played in Germany, so it won’t be a true road game in front of thousands of Patriots fans. But Bill Belichick is still New England’s head coach, and his defense usually makes life hell for a rookie or inexperienced QB. It probably won’t go well if Richardson is starting at this point in the season. (Remember how Sam Ehlinger looked last year in Foxboro?) However, a lopsided loss would be a valuable teaching moment for the rookie as he learns what it takes to be successful in the NFL.
Predicted record: 5-12
Richardson is the Colts’ highest draft pick since Andrew Luck was selected first overall in 2012, but expecting him to step right in and lead the team to the playoffs like Luck did is unfair. The 20-year-old started just 13 games at Florida, with a 6-7 record, and his 53.8 completion percentage ranked 13th out of 14 starting SEC QBs in 2022. Whenever he sees the field, there will be ups and downs.
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If Minshew is QB1 to begin the season, it’s not a stretch to think he could pick up a few early wins, especially since he spent the last two years with Steichen in Philadelphia. But he’s 8-16 as a starting quarterback, and, at some point, the magic would wear off.
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Predicted AFC South finish: Third
Jaguars, Titans, Colts, Texans
The jump Lawrence made last season in Jacksonville makes it feel like this is his division until further notice. Plus, he has a new playmaker with wideout Calvin Ridley returning from a year-long suspension in 2022. The Titans crumbled down the stretch last season and don’t seem to be as formidable, but they still have head coach Mike Vrabel, who always finds a way to bully the Colts (much to Irsay’s dismay). That leaves Indianapolis and Houston to duke it out at the bottom of the standings, and the Colts should have a slight advantage. A healthy Taylor on offense and Shaquille Leonard on defense could go a long way. Both were named first-team All-Pro in 2021.
(Top photo: Zach Bolinger / Icon Sportswire via Associated Press)
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